I listened to the original podcast where Noah Smith talked about this and then read a bunch of later analysis.
It makes sense on a theoretical level, but it also feels really hard to estimate what the cost of compute will be in the future. On the one hand, there is almost unlimited need for more compute if the AI is smart enough.
On the other hand, we know that AI right now is incredibly inefficient compared to the human brain. And that all the AI companies have been making AI more efficient at a drastic pace.
What frameworks do you use to think about the price of compute in the future?
Hmmm thanks for the question! I guess I wonder; to what degree does the price of compute matter so much as the dynamics of how we handle demand for compute?
As Noahpinion mentioned, are we sacrificing human quality of life by diverting energy towards AI over human needs? Or are we managing demand for compute in a manner that accentuates human growth?
Additionally, I think we vastly underestimate the capacity of humans to shape a technology as it develops. That's why pieces, discussions and questions like these matter so much; we need more heads put together & a greater variety of them to crack puzzles like these.
Nobody serious is saying we won’t. The question is how many, and how economies and governments will have to change so a huge spike in unemployment won’t lead to mass poverty.
That's not even a maybe. That's absolutely certain, but I didn't say quickly. It'll take years for people to learn how to use these tools, and for them to begin replacing people by the millions, but happen it will.
I'm already seeing it myself. I've been using rudimentary AI for years, in online marketing work I do, and it's already hitting employment.
Freelancer sites are seeing significant drops in people looking for outsourcing, especially overseas. My productivity is around three times higher than it was five years ago, not just because of AI, but also just better tools and learning how to use them together. I know lawyers who are hearing firms are hiring less, writers seeing pulpy authors suddenly publishing 2, 3, 4 times as much overnight, a friend who manages call centers overseas seeing whole call centers get shut down and plans for new ones getting cancelled...
And it's all barely started. AI is still quite stupid.
Great summary.
I listened to the original podcast where Noah Smith talked about this and then read a bunch of later analysis.
It makes sense on a theoretical level, but it also feels really hard to estimate what the cost of compute will be in the future. On the one hand, there is almost unlimited need for more compute if the AI is smart enough.
On the other hand, we know that AI right now is incredibly inefficient compared to the human brain. And that all the AI companies have been making AI more efficient at a drastic pace.
What frameworks do you use to think about the price of compute in the future?
Hmmm thanks for the question! I guess I wonder; to what degree does the price of compute matter so much as the dynamics of how we handle demand for compute?
As Noahpinion mentioned, are we sacrificing human quality of life by diverting energy towards AI over human needs? Or are we managing demand for compute in a manner that accentuates human growth?
Additionally, I think we vastly underestimate the capacity of humans to shape a technology as it develops. That's why pieces, discussions and questions like these matter so much; we need more heads put together & a greater variety of them to crack puzzles like these.
Nobody serious is saying we won’t. The question is how many, and how economies and governments will have to change so a huge spike in unemployment won’t lead to mass poverty.
Interesting thought, what leads you to believe unemployment will massively spike so quickly and that mass poverty will emerge?
That's not even a maybe. That's absolutely certain, but I didn't say quickly. It'll take years for people to learn how to use these tools, and for them to begin replacing people by the millions, but happen it will.
I'm already seeing it myself. I've been using rudimentary AI for years, in online marketing work I do, and it's already hitting employment.
Freelancer sites are seeing significant drops in people looking for outsourcing, especially overseas. My productivity is around three times higher than it was five years ago, not just because of AI, but also just better tools and learning how to use them together. I know lawyers who are hearing firms are hiring less, writers seeing pulpy authors suddenly publishing 2, 3, 4 times as much overnight, a friend who manages call centers overseas seeing whole call centers get shut down and plans for new ones getting cancelled...
And it's all barely started. AI is still quite stupid.